Bay St. Louis, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

586
FXUS64 KLIX 281842
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
142 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Hot conditions will continue with heat index readings peaking by
  Tuesday up to 110F.

- Ongoing minor river flooding continues to impact parts of the
  Pearl and Pascagoula River Basins.

- Potential for heavy rainfall and strong/severe storms returns
  toward the middle of this week as an easterly waves moves over
  the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

The region is currently starting to bake under a 594dam H5 ridge
right over the region this afternoon. This is helping temperatures
warm well into the 90s. That said, RH values and temps have not
increased enough to bring us into heat advisory territory yet...at
least today. With a rather high amount of subsidence aloft under
the heat bubble, convection had a very difficult time late this
morning and afternoon. That said, there are silent 10`s over the
BTR area as both globals and CAMs have an isolated rogue shower or
two, similar to NOLA yesterday. Low confidence, but not
impossible.

Going into Monday and Tuesday the upper ridge lifts northward over
the midsouth to include the Mid MISS River Valley. As it does it
will strengthen a bit more, which will continue to provide our
region with a mostly dry forecast, at least early on in the week.
By late Tuesday and into Wednesday an easterly wave will continue
downstream under the southern periphery of the aforementioned
ridge...now over the Ohio River Valley and stronger...roughly
598dam. Although this will bake our friends to the north, this
will add some spreed to the upper level inverted trough and move
it through the region pretty quickly. This should overall limit a
more widespread hydro/severe threat, but localized flooding and a
severe wind gust or two will certainly be possible.

As the easterly wave exits stage west, the POPs only drop slightly
as we will continue to see plenty of low level moisture feed and
less impacts from the ridge is it continues a bit more away from
our region. This will allow for at least climo POPs/Temps as we
evolve into a more summer like pattern going into the 2nd half of
next week. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Going into late week and into the upcoming Holiday Weekend eyes
shift upstream once again toward the Florida west coast as another
H5 easterly wave tries to move westward toward our region late
Thursday and into Friday. Once again, this will increase POPs and
maybe lower temps a bit during peak heating. This feature appears
rather weak in the globals, but there remains a QPF signal late
week and sadly into the upcoming Fourth of July activities. It
doesn`t look at this juncture like a complete rain out, but many
will see at least a brief shower or storm during the day Friday
and Saturday. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the forecast period. The
only slight issue may be a rogue shower or storm near BTR this
afternoon, but confidence is very low...though a short fused TEMPO
cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, winds should remain light and
variable through the period. (Frye)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

High pressure will move north of the coastal waters early this week
and be replaced with an easterly wave that is expected to move over
the local waters late Tuesday through Thursday. With this wave,
expect an uptick in convection with higher rain chances, mostly
during the overnight and morning hours. Locally higher winds and
seas will be possible in and around convection along with frequent
lightning. (Frye)

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF