Bay St. Louis, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

507
FXUS64 KLIX 250452
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1152 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

An active convective pattern will persist through the first part
of the weekend as a weak area of low pressure continues to move
westward through the northwestern Gulf and a plume of deep
tropical moisture remains in place across the area.

Only isolated to widely scattered showers currently remain mainly
over the nearshore coastal waters. We should continue to see a
relative lull in convective activity for at least the next few
hours before showers and storms begin to refire toward daybreak.
Expect convection to begin firing in coastal areas first,
spreading inland through the late morning and afternoon. Forecast
soundings indicate precipitable water values in the 2.1-2.3 inch
range across most of the area, which is right around or just above
the 90th percentile for this time of year. The ample moisture
will once again allow for efficient rainfall, and a few storms
could produce localized flooding mainly in low lying and poor
drainage areas such as underpasses and other easily flooded
roadways. Severe weather doesn`t look likely, but a few stronger
storms could still produce frequent lightning and wind gusts of 30
to 40 mph. With rain and dense cloud cover, expect afternoon
highs to top out in the upper 80s most places.

Saturday should be much the same as Friday given no substantial
change to the airmass and continued ample moisture throughout the
column.

Will mention that there is some potential for far northwestern
areas to briefly reach heat advisory criteria before showers and
storms spread far enough inland to cool things off a bit, but any
time of heat index at or above 108 degrees should be pretty short-
lived and in isolated areas. Thus will hold off on any heat
advisories.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Sunday will be a transition day as an upper high begins to build
in from the east. Doesn`t look like the high will be quite strong
enough on Sunday to completely quelch any convection. So with
model forecast soundings indicating 2.0-2.1 inches of precipitable
water, daytime heating should still provide sufficient
instability to fire off isolated to scattered showers and storms,
with the best rain chances across areas near the Atchafalaya,
which will be further from the influence of the high. That being
said, if the high builds in faster/stronger than currently
forecast, POPs may need to be adjusted downward. As convective
coverage decreases, temperatures will begin to rise.
Unfortunately, there will still be plenty of moisture around, with
dewpoints forecast in the mid to upper 70s. This will make for an
uncomfortable afternoon, and the current forecast calls for
maximum heat index values of 105-110 degrees for areas along and
around the the I-10 and I-12 corridors. A heat advisory may be
needed for some of these areas.

Going into Monday and Tuesday the aforementioned upper high will
make its presence known with a veangeance. As the high becomes
more centered over the local area, subsidence aloft will
effectively suppress convection, allowing afternoon temperatures
to rise into the mid to upper 90s. It is certainly within reach
for a few places to hit the century mark. And with dewpoints
still forecast to be in the mid to upper 70s, it will be downright
oppressive in most places. Afternoon heat index values are
currently forecast to rise to near 115 degrees across much of the
forecast area, which would necessitate extreme heat warnings, if
the forecast holds. Compounding the heat risk is the fact that
overnight lows Monday into Tuesday will struggle to drop below 80
degrees across southern portions of the area, meaning those
without access to reliable air conditioning will struggle to find
relief from the heat even overnight.

Thankfully the heat dome looks to break down after just a couple
days as another weak inverted trough traverses the northern Gulf
bringing increased rain chances to the area once again during the
second half of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

An active convective pattern will persist Friday with periods of
showers and storms affecting the terminals. A relative lull
will continue for another few hours before showers and storms
begin to refire near the coast around or before daybreak,
spreading inland through the late morning and afternoon. Will
likely see periods of IFR conditions at each terminal due to
convection, but with timing of the worst conditions uncertain will
continue to carry mostly MVFR conditions in PROB30 groups for the
time being.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Main concern to marine operations will be the potential for
showers and thunderstorms to produce locally higher winds and
seas. Storms will be most numerous during the late night through
morning hours over the open waters today through Saturday, with
the threat over the protected waters mainly during the late
morning into early evening hours. Areal coverage of showers and
storms should be considerably lower during Sunday through Tuesday
before increasing again at midweek next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  89  73 /  80  40  80  20
BTR  93  76  90  76 /  90  50  80  30
ASD  89  74  89  75 /  80  50  80  30
MSY  90  79  91  79 /  90  60  80  30
GPT  89  77  89  77 /  90  70  80  40
PQL  89  76  89  76 /  90  60  80  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM